考完試, 開始新學期

如題

..........................無心情起題

中國出口產品賺美金，然後又將美金買美債， 美國政府就可以不斷發債猛搞大政府，美國人就可以不斷買平貨。不過世界上冇免費午餐，出得行預要還，只不過冇人知究竟幾時還。呢個煲要爆，會點爆呢？ 首先，如果大家都唔再信美國政府有能力還債，第一時間當然係賣債券啦。經濟學101教， 人人賣債券，債券價格落，息口就升。第二，賣債券之後，又點會仲有人美鈔咁笨？所以當人人都沽美金，美金又點可以抵擋地心吸力？當美金跌，國內物價自然 相對提高，特別係入口貨，咁自然有通脹 。

The real crisis

The raise in interest rates is never a crisis as it indicates a strong growth in the U.S. economy. A drop in interest rates, on the other hand, is what we really need to worry about. Think about this, if the U.S. economy is beginning to slow down (the recent weaker than expected economic indicators), and if the U.S. dollar keeps falling and commodity and raw materials remain high-priced, the Federal Reserve again needs to raise the interest rates as to maintain a massive inflow of capital to the U.S. in order to boost the economy. And that is the worst case for the worldwide stock markets.

In my opinion,
a raise in interest rates -> strong economy + increase in cost of capitals -> long-term benefit + short-term fallout
a drop in interest rates -> weak economy + decrease in cost of capitals -> long-term fallout + short-term benefit

考試

今年assignment不錯，但考試準備得不太好